World Bank Puts Middle Corridor Priority Bill at $25.1bn

The 16 largest priority infrastructure projects on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route will cost $25.1 billion, according to a new World Bank report, with railways accounting for $22.5 billion of the total. The bank expects cargo moving across the Caspian Sea to grow about 3.6-fold, from 8.8 million tonnes in 2023 to 32.1 million tonnes by 2040.

The report, titled "Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor", was published on 28 September. It is the World Bank's second major study of the route, often called the Middle Corridor, which links China and Central Asia to Europe via Kazakhstan, the Caspian, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey.

Most projects are already moving

The bank says about 75% of the 16 projects, representing 85% of their combined cost, are already under implementation or close to launch. That is a more encouraging picture than earlier corridor studies, which listed plans rather than works. Georgia has pledged to double rail and port capacity, is preparing to tender the Anaklia rail link, and the EU has set out a 12 billion euro Global Gateway package for the route.

According to Trend and Report.az, the bank estimates Azerbaijan is participating in corridor projects worth about $3.2 billion, including the expansion of the Port of Baku.

The bigger bill behind the headline

The $25.1 billion covers only the flagship items. The bank estimates that roughly $30 billion more is needed for enabling investments: feeder roads and railways that connect the corridor to local economies, inland terminals and logistics hubs, and handling equipment. Total needs to 2040 therefore exceed $55 billion.

The payoff, if delivered, is faster transit. The bank says end-to-end delivery times could fall to 18 to 19 days by 2040, trade along the corridor could grow about 1.5 times, and the investment programme could add up to 3.3% to GDP in participating countries.

Where the bottlenecks remain

Hardware is only part of the problem. The report also details customs transit procedures that need to be harmonised. That is where the corridor is weakest today: CBJ reported this month that China-Georgia freight transit has blown out to 45 days, far longer than the corridor's advertised transit times. Ferry capacity on the Caspian, gauge changes at borders and digital paperwork will decide whether the 2040 targets are met.

The forecasts also rest on assumptions about Chinese export volumes and the continued avoidance of northern routes through Russia. If those shift, the traffic case for some rail upgrades would weaken, and the enabling investments, which rely more on private capital, would be the first to slip.

Sources: World Bank; Trend; Report.az; Caspian Post; News Central Asia, 28-29 September 2026.