Energy
KazMunayGas Plans 31% Boost in Oil Exports via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan in 2026
August 18, 2026
4
Min
Kazakhstan's state oil company KazMunayGas plans to increase its crude exports through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline by 31% in 2026, to 1.7 million tonnes, as Astana accelerates its search for export routes that bypass Russia.
In January–June of this year, 704,000 tonnes of Kazakh oil were already shipped from the Caspian port of Aktau across to Baku and onward through the BTC system, according to reports citing the Report news agency. The push comes amid delays in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route through Russia, which has repeatedly been disrupted — leaving trans-Caspian shipment through the South Caucasus as Kazakhstan's most credible alternative for incremental barrels.
The Baku–Supsa pipeline, also under consideration as a supplementary route to Georgia's Black Sea coast, has been suspended for almost four years, concentrating flows on BTC.
The pipeline has capacity to absorb the extra volumes. Oil transportation through BTC rose 10% month-on-month in June, with daily exports reaching 547,000 barrels, though OPEC data show throughput was still 5% below June 2025 levels — headroom that Kazakh barrels can help fill as Azerbaijan's own mature fields gradually decline.
The commercial logic is reinforced by shifting operational control of the corridor. SOCAR is taking over operatorship of the BTC pipeline from bp, placing Azerbaijan's state company at the centre of scheduling decisions just as trans-Caspian volumes ramp up. SOCAR also recently increased its stake in the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli field complex from 31.65% to 35.3% after acquiring Japanese trader ITOCHU's interest.
For Georgia, rising transit reinforces the country's position as the indispensable middle link in Caspian energy logistics, generating transit fees and cementing the case for corridor infrastructure investment from the Anaklia port to the newly tendered $250 million Tbilisi bypass road.
For Kazakhstan, the 1.7-million-tonne target remains modest against total exports of roughly 70 million tonnes a year, most of which still flows through Russia. But the direction of travel is unmistakable: every disruption on the CPC route strengthens the argument for building out trans-Caspian capacity, and 2026 is shaping up as the year that argument turns into contracted volumes.
