Global
Kazakhstan Trade Turnover Nears $45bn as Imports Outpace Exports in 2026
July 28, 2026
3
Min
Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover climbed to $44.9 billion in the first four months of 2026, a 7.9% increase over the same period a year earlier, as a faster rise in imports began to eat into the country's long-standing trade surplus. Exports edged up 5% to $24 billion while imports surged 11.3% to $20.9 billion, according to figures reported by national statisticians, leaving a narrowing gap of roughly $3.1 billion between what Central Asia's largest economy sells abroad and what it buys.
The numbers capture an economy still anchored by hydrocarbons but increasingly reshaped by domestic demand and investment-driven imports. Astana has spent recent years courting foreign capital and expanding transit infrastructure, and the appetite for machinery, equipment and intermediate goods that accompanies such a build-out is now visible in the trade ledger. The result is a surplus that is shrinking not because exports are faltering, but because imports are accelerating twice as fast.
Commodities remain the backbone of Kazakhstan's export earnings. Crude oil and petroleum products alone accounted for 44% of total exports in the period, underscoring how sensitive the balance stays to global energy prices. Refined copper and alloys contributed 7.5%, followed by copper ores and concentrates at 6.3%, a reminder that the country's mineral wealth is broadening beyond oil. On the destination side, China took 20.3% of exports to rank as the top buyer, ahead of Italy at 16.5% and Russia at 8.4%, as detailed by The Astana Times.
The import picture tells a different geographic story. Russia supplied 31.8% of Kazakhstan's imports and China 28.6%, meaning the two neighbours together accounted for more than 60% of everything the country brought in. That concentration carries strategic weight for investors weighing supply-chain exposure: Kazakhstan's outbound trade is diversifying toward European and Asian buyers, but its import dependence on Moscow and Beijing remains pronounced. For businesses eyeing the region, the widening flow of imported goods signals robust internal demand and an economy absorbing capital, even as the shrinking surplus tightens the external cushion. Kazakhstan has been the standout destination for regional investment, having drawn the bulk of Central Asia's greenfield inflows, and the current trade data broadly aligns with that momentum, as covered by the Caucasus Business Journal.
Looking ahead, the trajectory will hinge on whether export volumes and prices can keep pace with rising imports. Continued strength in oil shipments and firmer copper markets could stabilise the surplus, while any softening in energy prices would expose the balance more quickly given how heavily crude still dominates the export mix. For now, the $44.9 billion figure points to an economy trading more with the world on both sides of the ledger, deepening its role as Central Asia's commercial hub even as the composition of that trade continues to shift.
