Georgia's Inflation Rises to 5.9% in October

Georgia's annual inflation rose to 5.9% in October 2026, the National Statistics Office of Georgia (Geostat) said. That is up from 5.6% in September, Trend reported, and almost twice the 3% target set by the National Bank of Georgia (NBG).

Prices rose 0.9% in October compared with September, according to Geostat data reported by Trend. Transport prices were 21.9% higher than a year earlier and housing and utilities 10.1%, the main drivers of the annual rise, Trading Economics reported from the Geostat data. Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items, stood at 4%.

The central bank's view

When it kept its monetary policy rate unchanged at 8.25% on 9 September, the NBG said it expected average annual inflation of about 5.2% in 2026, converging gradually to the 3% target over the medium term. At that point, headline inflation was 5.6% in August, core inflation 3.6% and services inflation 4.4%.

Core inflation has therefore risen from 3.6% in August to 4% in October, while headline inflation, after holding at 5.6% in August and September, rose in October. At its next meeting, on 21 October, the NBG kept the rate at 8.25% again and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.4%, Trading Economics reported.

Context

Inflation is rising while the economy grows quickly. Geostat's estimates show Georgia's economy grew 7.4% in the first nine months of the year, including growth of 6% in September alone. Fast growth and rising prices together put the NBG in a different position from a central bank facing a slowdown.

Analysis

In CBJ's view, the data give the NBG little reason to ease policy. With headline inflation at 5.9% and core inflation at 4%, both measures are above the 3% target, and both were higher in October than in August. Borrowers and businesses that price in lari should not count on lower interest rates in the near term on these figures.

The October figure also tests the bank's forecast. Convergence to 3% depends on inflation peaking and then falling, and the October rise means that turning point has not yet arrived.

What to watch

Geostat's November consumer price data will show whether transport and utility prices keep driving the annual rate. The NBG's next rate statement and its updated forecast will show how far the bank has revised its 2026 inflation path. Whether the policy rate moves from 8.25%, the level held in September and October, and the reasons the bank gives, will shape lari lending costs going into 2027. For households, the main question is whether price growth in everyday goods slows before the end of the year.

Sources: National Statistics Office of Georgia; National Bank of Georgia, 9 September 2026 decision; Trend, annual inflation; Trend, monthly inflation.

Image: Caucasus Business Journal archive, via caucasusbusinessjournal.com

Correction, 11 November 2026: An earlier version said clothing and footwear were among the categories that moved most in October and that CBJ could not confirm the outcome of the National Bank of Georgia's 21 October meeting. Transport and housing and utilities drove the annual rise; the NBG held its rate at 8.25% on 21 October and raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 5.4% (Trading Economics, 3 November and 21 October 2026).