Business
Georgia's Inflation Hits 5.6% in September as Transport Drives Price Growth
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Georgia's annual inflation stood at 5.6% in September 2026, with core inflation at 3.7%, according to National Statistics Office data reported by Trend on October 2.
Transport is the main driver
A second Trend analysis, published October 3 and based on official data, found that transport prices accounted for about 39.3% of Georgia's annual inflation in September, making it the largest single contributor.
Context
The headline figure is unchanged from August's 5.6%, while core inflation edged up from 3.6% to 3.7%. The National Bank of Georgia targets 3% and forecasts 5.2% for the full year 2026. It has blamed higher energy prices linked to Middle East tensions and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions for the overshoot.
The NBG has held its refinancing rate at 8.25% since a 0.25-point hike in May and meets next on October 21. The Asian Development Bank, meanwhile, now expects the Georgian economy to grow 6.3% in 2026, up from 5.5% in July, and has lifted its inflation projection to 5.2%.
What it means for business
For importers, logistics operators and retailers, transport-led inflation means fuel and freight costs remain the key margin risk. The gap between headline (5.6%) and core (3.7%) shows that price pressure is concentrated in energy-sensitive categories rather than broad demand, which supports the central bank's decision to hold rather than tighten again.
Georgia's growth has been among the fastest in the region, with the NBG citing 9.1% in the first quarter. Sustained expansion alongside above-target inflation leaves policymakers balancing support for activity against the risk that supply-driven price rises feed into wages and expectations.
Market participants will look to the October 21 meeting for any change in tone. Another hold would extend the current pause to four meetings, while a further hike would signal concern that second-round effects are building.
Sources: Georgian National Statistics Office, via Trend.
