Business
Georgia's real GDP grew an average of 7.6% in January–August 2026, but growth cooled to 6.3% year on year in August, according to preliminary estimates from Geostat, the national statistics office. Growth in July had been 8.0%, so August marks a visible step down.
The expansion remained broad. Manufacturing, information and communication, financial and insurance activities, real estate, trade, and transportation and storage all contributed to growth in August. Construction was the exception, recording a downward trend.
What the numbers say
- January–August growth: 7.6% on average
- August growth: 6.3% year on year
- July growth: 8.0%
- Weak spot: construction, declining
The forecast implies a slower finish
The Asian Development Bank recently raised its 2026 growth forecast for Georgia to 6.3% from 5.5%, as reported by Caspian Post. With eight months averaging 7.6%, a full-year figure of 6.3% would require growth of roughly 3.5–4% across the remaining four months, by CBJ's own estimate. Official outcomes may well come in higher than the forecast, but the August cooling shows momentum is fading from the early-year peaks of above 10%.
Early 2026 was exceptionally strong: the central bank noted March growth of 10.7% and first-quarter growth of 9.1% when it raised rates in May. Those high readings are now rolling into a tougher base for comparison.
Why construction matters
Construction tends to be a leading indicator of investment sentiment. A decline there, alongside higher borrowing costs and September inflation of 5.6%, suggests some cooling in investment-led activity even as services and manufacturing hold up.
Outlook
Investors should watch September and October data for confirmation of a trend. If growth settles in a 5–7% range, Georgia would still lead the South Caucasus, but the pace of the first half is unlikely to be repeated.
