Energy
Azerbaijan Earns $9.3B From Oil, $5.7B From Gas in 8M 2026
September 16, 2026
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Min
Azerbaijan exported 14.678 million tonnes of crude oil and petroleum products from bituminous rocks worth $9.282 billion in January-August 2026, up 10.6% ($886 million) in value while volumes fell 7.8% (1.247 million tonnes), according to Trend calculations based on State Customs Committee data published on 15 September.
Natural gas moved the other way. Exports of 16.37 billion cubic metres earned $5.7 billion, down $286 million (4.8%) in value on a 0.5% fall in volume, Trend reported from the same dataset.
Oil: fewer barrels, more dollars
The oil figures are consistent with what the central bank reported a day earlier for the first half: an average realised price of $94.5 a barrel, 33% above the year-earlier level. Price did the work. Azerbaijan's mature offshore fields are producing less, with the EIA projecting output sliding from about 550,000 barrels a day this year toward 520,000 in 2027, but this year's rally in crude prices has more than offset the volume decline in revenue terms.
That is a comfortable position for the budget and for SOFAZ, but it is not a trend that can be extended indefinitely. Every percentage point of volume lost has to be bought back with price, and the price is set elsewhere.
Gas: why revenue fell while prices rose
The gas line deserves a closer look. Volumes were essentially flat, yet the value of exports fell almost 5% in a year of higher oil prices. The customs data do not explain the gap, and Trend does not offer a reading. The most plausible explanations are contractual: much of Azerbaijan's pipeline gas to Europe and Türkiye is sold on formulas that lag oil or hub prices by several months, and a large share of the volume is under long-term contracts whose pricing does not track spot moves. CBJ has not seen contract terms and cannot confirm the mechanism; what the numbers show is that gas earnings and oil earnings are not moving together this year.
The context on the demand side is otherwise supportive. Azerbaijan began deliveries to Germany under a ten-year SEFE contract earlier this year and, according to a separate Trend calculation from Turkish regulator data, became Türkiye's largest gas supplier in July.
The wider trade picture
Total foreign trade in the eight months was $33.2 billion, up 3.49%. Exports rose 27.83% to $21.8 billion while imports fell 24.11% to $11.4 billion, producing a surplus of $10.392 billion, 5.2 times the year-earlier figure, per Trend. The European Union took 53.86% of exports ($11.75 billion); CIS countries took 6.18%.
Non-oil exports were $6.27 billion, or 28.78% of the total. High-tech exports were $65.72 million against high-tech imports of $1.35 billion, a ratio that says more about the structure of the economy than any headline surplus. Smaller energy lines grew fast from low bases: electricity exports of 319.04 million kWh earned $16.6 million, and petroleum product exports rose 1.4-fold, according to Trend reports on the same customs release.
What to watch
Two things. First, whether the gas revenue decline persists into the autumn contract-reset window; if the lag explanation is right, gas earnings should catch up with oil by year-end. Second, the import collapse. A 24% fall in imports flatters the surplus but is unusual in an economy growing its non-oil sector; the customs data do not break down whether it reflects lower equipment imports for completed energy projects or weaker consumer demand. Until that is clear, the record surplus should be read as an oil-price event rather than a structural shift.
