Azerbaijan Inflation at 5.5% in September, Food Up 6.9%

Consumer prices in Azerbaijan were 5.5% higher in September 2026 than a year earlier, according to State Statistical Committee data reported by Trend on 12 October 2026. Prices rose 0.9% from August, and the average for January to September was 5.7% above the same period of 2025.

The figures matter because inflation has averaged 5.7% this year while the economy has grown only 1.5%, a combination that leaves the Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) little room to cut interest rates. The bank's next rate decision is due on 29 October 2026.

Food leads the monthly jump

Food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco drove September's increase, rising 1.4% from August and 6.9% from a year earlier, Trend reported. Vegetable prices jumped 6.9% in the month, eggs 5.4%, meat 2% and fish 1.9%, while fruit fell 1.3%. Non-food goods rose 0.4% on the month and 3.6% on the year, and paid services 0.6% and 5.1% respectively, with university and college fees, exam preparation courses and residential rents among the items that went up.

Over the nine months, food, drink and tobacco prices were up 6.9%, non-food goods 3.7% and services 5.5% compared with January to September 2025. The nine-month average of 5.7% was also reported by APA, citing the committee, and matches the average for the first eight months.

A monthly series that does not line up

Trend described September as a rebound from 4.9% in August. That August figure is not consistent with other published data: Trading Economics put annual inflation at 5.7% in August and 5.8% in July, and the CBA's August Monetary Policy Review gave 5.8% for June, where Trend's series shows 6%. CBJ could not reconcile the two series from public data, so this report does not describe September's reading as a rise or a fall.

Policy and forecasts

The CBA has held its refinancing rate at 6.5% since a 0.25 percentage point cut in February 2026. On 23 September it kept the rate and the 7.5% ceiling of its interest rate corridor unchanged but lowered the floor by 0.5 points to 5%, a step it said was meant to encourage interbank trading amid excess liquidity, Trend reported. CBJ covered that decision at the time.

Forecasters expect little relief in the near term. The IMF's October World Economic Outlook projects average inflation of 5.8% in 2026 and 5.6% in 2027, Trend and APA reported on 13 October 2026. The CBA's own estimate is 6.1% for 2026 and 5.8% for 2027, and the Asian Development Bank expects 5.9% this year, according to Report. The Ministry of Economy projects 5.7% for 2026, easing to 4.3% by 2030, Trend reported.

Slow growth, rising incomes

The price data arrive alongside weak output. Gross domestic product rose 1.5% in January to September to about AZN 102.05 billion ($60.03 billion), the statistics committee said, as reported by Report and Trend. Oil and gas output fell 1.2% to about AZN 30.33 billion ($17.84 billion), while the non-oil economy grew 2.6% to AZN 71.72 billion. CBJ reported the January to July data in September.

Household nominal income rose 9.6% to AZN 72.71 billion over the same nine months, Report said, so incomes are still growing faster than average prices in nominal terms.

What to watch

• The CBA's decision and press conference on 29 October 2026, the first since it widened the interest rate corridor.
• October price data, which will show whether September's 0.9% monthly rise, led by vegetables, eggs and education fees, was a one-off.
• Any clarification of the monthly annual inflation series from the statistics committee or the CBA.
• Hydrocarbon prices, which the ADB expects to keep inflation elevated in the second half of the year.

Sources: Trend, 12 October 2026; Trend, 9 October 2026; APA, 9 October 2026; Report, 9 October 2026; Trend, 9 October 2026; Report, 9 October 2026; Trend, 13 October 2026; APA, 13 October 2026; Trend, 23 September 2026; Report, 23 September 2026; Trading Economics, 21 September 2026; Central Bank of Azerbaijan, Monetary Policy Review, August 2026