Energy
Azerbaijan's August Oil Output Trails OPEC+ Target by 150,000 Barrels a Day
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Azerbaijan produced about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil in August 2026, 44,000 bpd less than in July and roughly 150,000 bpd below the level set under its OPEC+ commitment, according to International Energy Agency data reported by Report.az on September 11.
The country's OPEC+ quota for this year is 551,000 bpd, so the shortfall is structural rather than a policy choice: Azerbaijan cannot currently produce what its quota allows.
A long decline
The gap reflects the maturing of the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) complex, the country's main oil source. JAMnews reported in April that total oil output fell from 50.8 million tonnes in 2010 to 27.7 million tonnes in 2025, with ACG output dropping from 40.5 million to 16.2 million tonnes over the same period, citing official statistics, in an analysis available at JAMnews. The same analysis noted that the oil and gas sector's value added fell 1.2% in the first quarter of 2026.
The consequence is visible in growth forecasts. The Asian Development Bank trimmed its 2026 growth estimate for Azerbaijan to 1.6% from 2.0%, linking the downgrade to a contraction in the oil sector. Energy products still made up about 87% of exports in 2024, so volumes matter directly for the external balance.
Gas is carrying more weight
Natural gas is partly filling the gap. Azerbaijan exported 16.37 bcm of gas in the reporting period CBJ covered earlier this month, although revenue slipped 4.8% to $5.7 billion. This week's final investment decision on the Absheron field adds about 5 bcm a year of future capacity, but it does not add oil.
For investors and suppliers, the practical reading is that the oil business is now a managed-decline story. Higher prices from Middle East tensions cushion revenue per barrel but cannot offset a 27% gap between actual output and the quota. Contractors and service companies should look to gas, redevelopment of existing fields and the unconventional hydrocarbon work planned with ExxonMobil rather than to new oil volumes.
The next marker is the September IEA and OPEC data, which will show whether output stabilises near 400,000 bpd or slips further. If the shortfall persists, expect the government to lean harder on gas and non-oil export growth to maintain budget surpluses.
