Mining
Anglo Asian Cuts 2026 Gold Guidance as Azerbaijani Copper Output Jumps
September 22, 2026
4
Min
Anglo Asian Mining, the London-listed producer that operates Azerbaijan's principal gold and copper assets, has cut its full-year gold production guidance for 2026 while holding copper and silver targets unchanged — a split result that reflects a company mid-way through a deliberate shift from precious to base metals.
The company lowered its 2026 gold guidance to 26,000 to 30,000 ounces, down from a previous range of 28,000 to 33,000 ounces. That is a 7.1% cut at the bottom of the range and a 9.1% cut at the top.
The Gilar problem
The downgrade is attributed to lower-than-expected gold recoveries at the Gilar mine. Anglo Asian cited variability in the gold-bearing minerals within Gilar ore, which depressed recovery rates through the first half of the year. This is a metallurgical issue rather than a reserve issue — the gold is present, but a smaller proportion of it is being captured at current processing settings.
Headline production has nonetheless held up. Anglo Asian produced 12,329 ounces of gold in the first half of 2026, against 12,114 ounces in the same period of 2025, an increase of 1.8%. The guidance cut is therefore a statement about the second half rather than a reflection of a poor first.
Copper is where the growth sits
The more consequential number is copper. First-half copper production rose more than sevenfold year on year, and the company has maintained full-year copper guidance of 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes alongside silver guidance of 170,000 to 210,000 ounces.
Costs moved in the right direction as well. Anglo Asian lowered its all-in sustaining cost guidance for copper to $6,000 to $7,000 per tonne, from a previous $6,800 to $7,800 per tonne. At the midpoint that is an $800-per-tonne improvement, and it materially widens margins against prevailing copper prices.
Reading the transition
Anglo Asian has been explicit for some time that its future is weighted toward copper, and these numbers make the transition visible in the accounts rather than the strategy deck. A company producing 20,000-plus tonnes of copper at improving unit costs is a different business from one producing roughly 30,000 ounces of gold, and it is priced differently by the market.
For Azerbaijan, the shift matters beyond one issuer. Mining remains a small share of a hydrocarbon-dominated economy, and non-oil export diversification is an explicit policy objective. Copper cathode and concentrate are exportable, dollar-denominated and largely insulated from the oil price cycle that drives the rest of the state's revenue base. Anglo Asian's assets also sit in the Gedabek and Karabakh regions, where mineral development carries an additional political weight.
The caution is that metallurgical variability of the kind seen at Gilar tends to persist until process changes are made and proven. Investors will want to see recovery rates stabilise before treating the revised gold range as conservative. The copper trajectory, by contrast, now has a full half-year of delivery behind it.
