Azerbaijan Boosts European Gas Exports 56% as TAP Phase One Expansion Completes

Azerbaijan has emerged as a critical pillar of European energy security, with the country's gas exports to the EU surging by 56 percent compared to 2021 levels — a dramatic expansion driven by the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) and the broader Southern Gas Corridor that is reshaping the continent's energy supply map.

Total Azerbaijani gas exports to the EU reached approximately 12.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2025, up from around 8 bcm when the Southern Gas Corridor first reached full operational capacity. The first phase of the TAP expansion, completed in January 2026, added a further 1.2 bcm of annual capacity — with 1 bcm of that increment directed specifically toward Italy.

SOCAR and its contracted shippers are now working at maximum utilization of existing SGC infrastructure. Azerbaijan's energy minister has stated that the country is "ready and willing" to double its EU gas exports — to approximately 20 bcm annually — but has emphasized that achieving this target requires significant new investment in both upstream production capacity and downstream pipeline infrastructure.

Baku's expansion ambitions hinge on a Final Investment Decision on the Absheron gas field's Phase 2 development, operated jointly by SOCAR and TotalEnergies. Absheron Phase 2 would add several bcm of annual production capacity, providing the feedstock needed to justify further TAP expansion. Industry sources expect the FID by late 2026.

European buyers have shown strong appetite for additional Azerbaijani volumes as the continent continues its structural shift away from Russian gas supplies. The 56 percent increase in export volumes since 2021 has already provided meaningful relief to energy markets in Italy, Greece, Bulgaria, and Albania — countries directly connected to TAP's infrastructure.

Starting in January 2026, Azerbaijani gas began flowing to Austria and Germany via the TAP pipeline extension network, adding new customers and reducing concentration risk. The investment case for further SGC expansion is strong, but Azerbaijani and EU negotiators are working to balance long-term supply security commitments with flexibility provisions that account for the energy transition timeline and Europe's declining long-run gas demand.

Azerbaijan's simultaneous push into renewable energy creates an interesting strategic optionality. As domestic solar and wind capacity grows, more natural gas could be freed for export — allowing Azerbaijan to monetize fossil fuel reserves while meeting its own clean energy transition commitments and maintaining the geopolitical leverage that European gas dependency provides.

Further Reading:
Southern Gas Corridor: Azerbaijan's Role in Europe's Energy Security
SOCAR Upstream Production: Outlook and Investment Plans for 2026