Azerbaijan's Budget Revenue Beats Nine-Month Forecast by 2.8%

Azerbaijan's state budget collected 29.31 billion manat ($17.24 billion) in January to September 2026, 787.4 million manat, or 2.8%, more than forecast, the Ministry of Finance said on 29 October, as reported by Trend. The forecast for the period was 28.52 billion manat.

Revenue excluding transfers from the State Oil Fund (SOFAZ) reached 19.68 billion manat ($11.58 billion), up 1.4 billion manat, or 7.7%, on the same period of 2025. That is the part of the budget the government raises from the wider economy rather than from the oil fund.

Taxes carry the overshoot

Tax authorities brought in 13.63 billion manat, or 46.5% of revenue, and beat their forecast by 913.4 million manat, or 7.2%. SOFAZ transfers of 9.62 billion manat made up 32.8% of the total and were carried out as planned, the ministry said. Customs authorities collected 4.97 billion manat, or 17%, falling 10.7 million manat, or 0.2%, short of forecast.

The weakest line was paid services provided by budget-funded organisations, which raised 543.2 million manat, 208.5 million manat or 27.7% below forecast. Leasing of state property brought in 43.2 million manat, 25.9% above forecast, and other revenue 493.7 million manat, 20.6% above forecast.

The State Tax Service had already reported the tax side in early October. Its nine-month release put total tax receipts at 13,630.4 million manat, up 9.4% year on year, and receipts from the non-oil and gas sector at 10,332.6 million manat, up 12.6% and 292.6 million manat above forecast.

Oil and gas revenue above plan, oil fund transfer lower

Oil and gas revenue to the budget reached 12.9 billion manat ($7.59 billion), 625.5 million manat, or 5.1%, above forecast, according to the ministry's breakdown. Of that, 74.5% came from the SOFAZ transfer and 25.5%, or 3.3 billion manat, from tax authorities. The SOFAZ transfer was 1.23 billion manat, or 11.4%, lower than a year earlier.

Within oil and gas taxes, income tax from the Shah Deniz gas field contributed 1.53 billion manat, or 46.6%, taxes paid by SOCAR 1.3 billion manat, or 39.4%, and income tax from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil fields 461.1 million manat, or 14%.

Spending up 2.8%, social share near half

On the other side of the ledger, state budget expenditure in the nine months was 25.34 billion manat ($14.91 billion), 680 million manat or 2.8% more than a year earlier. Social expenditure took 12.64 billion manat, or 49.9% of the total, up 1.64 billion manat, or 14.9%. Servicing public debt cost 1.44 billion manat, or 5.7% of spending. The ministry said key obligations were funded in full and on time.

On these figures revenue exceeded spending by about 3.97 billion manat over the nine months, a CBJ calculation from the two reported totals.

What it means for business

For companies and investors, the useful signal is the non-oil tax base. Non-oil and gas tax receipts grew 12.6%, faster than total spending, while the oil fund's transfer to the budget fell by more than a tenth. A budget that leans less on SOFAZ and more on taxes from the wider economy gives the government room to keep spending without drawing down the fund.

It also puts more of the budget's weight on the tax side. With the tax authorities running 7.2% ahead of their forecast and customs close to plan, the growth of the non-oil economy matters more to public finances than it did when oil fund transfers were larger.

The figures sit alongside the medium-term plan the government has already set out. CBJ reported on that plan in its coverage of the 2027 to 2030 budget framework, and on the oil fund's balance in its report on SOFAZ assets after nine months.