Energy
Azerbaijan Gas Exports to Europe Up 56% as TAP Expansion Phase Starts
April 14, 2026
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Azerbaijan has emerged as the single most important non-Russian gas supplier to post-2022 Europe, with new data confirming that exports to the EU and adjacent buyers have risen 56% since 2021 — and that the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) is now entering a measurable expansion phase.
Total 2025 gas exports reached 25.2 billion cubic meters, with more than half going to European customers, according to State Oil Company SOCAR figures published in Baku. The first formal expansion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) — 1.2 bcma of new capacity — entered commercial service in January 2026, enabling Germany and Austria to appear for the first time on Azerbaijan's gas customer list.
With that, the number of countries receiving Azerbaijani molecules via the SGC now stands at 16, a figure cited by The Astana Times.
The expansion is more than symbolic. TAP's headline capacity remains 10 bcma, but the operators and shippers have mapped a path to 20 bcma via additional compressor stations and upstream investment at Shah Deniz. Executives are guiding markets toward 13–14 bcma of European supply as soon as the second half of 2026, aligning with firm Italian, Greek, Bulgarian and Balkan offtake contracts.
At the upstream end, Shah Deniz and the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli complex have now produced roughly 675 million tonnes of oil and 519 bcm of gas cumulatively — a reserve base that gives the SGC a production tail reaching deep into the 2030s. Details from APA.
Europe has publicly designated Azerbaijan a "cornerstone" of its post-Russia gas map, and both Brussels and Baku have committed to doubling supply by the end of the decade. For policymakers, the question has shifted from whether the infrastructure will be built to how quickly upstream can backfill the expanded pipeline capacity.
The implications for the Caucasus economy are significant. Net 2026 hydrocarbon revenues for Azerbaijan are projected at $5.03 billion — funds that SOFAZ, the sovereign wealth fund, has earmarked for non-oil diversification, including renewables, data centers, and a planned Caspian offshore wind buildout. Georgia, meanwhile, continues to collect transit fees on every molecule moving through the South Caucasus Pipeline.
For European energy buyers, the TAP expansion means incremental supply certainty heading into the 2026–27 winter heating season and a tangible alternative to continued Russian pipeline flows via Türkiye. For investors, Azerbaijan's gas export growth story is now anchored in contracted volume, not political rhetoric.
