Armenia's Exports to the EU Rise 51% to $717 Million in Nine Months

Armenia's exports to the European Union rose 51% to $717 million in January to September 2026 from $475 million a year earlier, Minister of Economy Gevorg Papoyan said in a Facebook post, Armenpress reported on 21 October. The gain of $242 million came before the EU's new duty suspension for Armenian goods, which took effect on 10 October and so did not affect the figures, ARKA noted.

The growth was broad but uneven. Exports to Bulgaria rose 4.9-fold and to Malta 4.8-fold, Armenpress reported from the minister's figures; Austria was up 3.1-fold, Poland threefold, Estonia 2.8-fold, Slovenia 2.7-fold, Finland 2.5-fold, Lithuania 2.4-fold, Cyprus 2.2-fold and Spain 2.1-fold, while sales to Sweden doubled. Italy was up 31.6% and Hungary 31%. Exports fell to Germany, down 7.6%, France, down 1.6%, Greece, down 10.6%, the Netherlands, down 13.7%, Luxembourg, down 32.3%, and Portugal, down 32.8%. The figures gave no breakdown by product.

The new EU regime

Regulation (EU) 2026/2269 on temporary trade-liberalisation measures for certain products originating in Armenia was adopted on 7 October 2026 and entered into force on 10 October, according to EUR-Lex, and applies for two years. The text agreed by the European Parliament and the Council suspends ad valorem duties on a list of products similar to the EU's GSP+ schedule, with some sensitive products removed and certain agricultural goods banned by Russia added, and removes duties within annual tariff quotas on eight agricultural products: 6,500 tonnes of cucumbers, 5,000 tonnes of grapes, 750 tonnes of pears, 7,000 tonnes of apricots, 2,000 tonnes of cherries, 3,500 tonnes of peaches, 1,500 tonnes of plums and 2,500 tonnes of strawberries.

The regulation's recitals say that since May 2026 Russia has introduced large-scale trade measures affecting imports of, and transit for, key Armenian export products including alcoholic beverages, mineral water, fruits and vegetables. The EU's neighbourhood information service says the measures liberalise around 80% of Armenian exports to the EU. CBJ reported on the measures when duty-free access came into force.

Diversification push

Papoyan has been making the diversification case all week. On 21 October he said exports to the United Arab Emirates had grown 25% to $130 million over the January to September period and that the government plans to subsidise 50% of jet fuel costs for cargo flights to the UAE, ARKA reported. The same day he put the direct negative effect of a hypothetical exit from the Eurasian Economic Union at about 0.65% of the economy, the result of a study by a working group of the Ministry of Economy, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance, and said a report by EAEU members forecasting a 15.6% contraction was exaggerated "by about 50%", according to ARKA.

Why it matters

The EU figures predate the duty suspension, so they measure demand, not tariff relief. Against a trade deficit that reached $4.03 billion in eight months, a $242 million gain in EU sales is modest, but it is the direction in which both EU policy and Russia's restrictions are pushing exporters. The quota sizes set the ceiling for the farm sector: 7,000 tonnes of apricots a year is the duty-free limit for one of the fruit categories affected by Russia's measures. For exporters of processed goods and services the broader duty suspension matters more, and the fourth quarter will be the first test of whether it moves the numbers.

What to watch

• Armstat's nine-month foreign trade release, which will show total exports, imports and the deficit alongside the EU share.
• Fourth-quarter EU export data, the first to reflect the 10 October duty suspension.
• Uptake of the eight agricultural tariff quotas, which the European Commission manages.